Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Trade Rumors - five things at play for the LA Kings

In less than two weeks, most fans will turn their attention back to the action on the ice. For now, it seems all everybody wants to talk about are trade rumors. Who's leaving, who's staying, what would it cost to get this guy or that guy?

Here's a quick recap of the five things in play for the Kings at the moment:

- One of the most valuable assets the Kings have to bargain with is Jonathan Bernier. He's a young goalie, former first round pick and (in limited action) appears to be everything you can build a franchise around. However, trading him away is also one of the riskiest moves GM Dean Lombardi can make. Jonathan Quick is an unrestricted free agent next summer (July 2013) and he's an east coast guy. Would he rather play for a team closer to home? Also, his career numbers are almost identical to Nashville's Pekka Rinne - who recently signed a seven year deal for $7-million per. Can the Kings afford to pay him that much? Trading Bernier now increases Quick's leverage in negotiations down the road and exposes the Kings if he was to walk away in a year.  Even so, as risky as it is, he's likely moving if Lombardi can land a sniper in a return. Any deal like that though would need to include other players because, with as talented as Bernier may be, he's still only played 43 games in the NHL. And you're not getting a top line forward straight up for a guy with 'potential.'

- If Bernier was to leave in a trade, expect the Kings to get a veteran back-up in return (either via that same deal or a separate one). It's highly unlikely you'll see either Manchester goalie as Quick's understudy come playoff time.

- Indications are Willie Mitchell is set to sign a contract extension real soon. This is good news for a Kings defensive core that has been one of the best in the NHL over the last few seasons. Signed in the summer of 2010, Mitchell is set to be an unrestricted free agent in July if a deal can't be worked out. Retaining him makes the Kings 'D' a solid position of strength and increases the likelihood one of their young blueliners will be traded - either before the deadline on February 27th or over the summer.

- Jack Johnson. You can't talk about who has been the best defensemen for the Kings this season and not mention his name in the discussion. He continues to improve his game and he just turned 25-years old. Most defensemen mature around 25-26. People tend to forget how young he is because he's been in the league for five seasons. What makes Johnson a candidate to move more than anything else is his contract. He's locked up long-term to a very favorable deal. It's not that the Kings want to get rid of him. It's that they may have to move him to get a high-end offensive player.

- Continuing with that theme, never forget that fans tend to overvalue their own players. Everybody may love Kyle Clifford, but he's not getting you Zach Parise in return. A package of Trevor Lewis, Colin Fraser and Alec Martinez isn't going to get you Jarome Iginla. That's not a knock on any of those Kings' players. Everybody inside a locker room plays a role. However, if you want a top-six forward in return, you're usually going to be dealing a front line defenseman, a top-six forward or a package of draft picks/prospects the other way. The Kings don't have many draft picks to offer at the moment, as they're without a second and third this year - which means they'll probably want to hold onto their first rounder. On the prospect side, Tyler Toffoli (LA's second round pick in 2010) is highly unlikely to be moved. The Kings need at least one, if not two forwards, so moving somebody like Dustin Brown just creates another hole.

Add all of those factors up and you can start to see what it isn't as easy to make deals as one might hope. This isn't NHL 12 on XBOX. Lombardi can't go out and just pick up every $7-million player that he wants. There are salary cap issues to consider as well as line-up cards to fill out every game. Robbing from Peter to pay Paul is a circular exercise.

To top it all off, the trade market is extremely thin this year - with way more buyers than sellers. So, with not enough players to go around, the few that are available will probably cost you more than they're worth because so many teams are bidding on them.

Do the Kings want Nash? Of course they do! But, they aren't getting him for what's being floated around the internet.  Not even close.  Sources told us last month the Blue Jackets were looking at Brown, Johnson, Bernier and a pick/prospect.  That's way too rich - even for an elite player like Nash. 

So, the most likely scenario has LA picking up one or two depth forwards at the deadline and having to wait until the summer to make a major move.


The Mayor
www.twitter.com/MayorNHL
www.facebook.com/MayorsManor 

RELATED ARTICLES:

Last year's trade deadline article - what did the Kings need and what could they give up?

Jack Johnson on the 'creative and unpredictable' Colorado Avalanche

Willie Mitchell on his past, present and future

21 comments:

  1. Please DO NOT trade Johnson. Like everyone mentioned/noticed, he is our best offensive d-man and so much more to offer for years to come. It would be an epic failure to trade him and watch him become a lot better than DD would be IMHO. Naturally more talented or not, DD has head issue and for us, trading DD to CBJ for Nash even swap would be ideal.

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    1. Seriously, read the article defencemen don't mature until there 25-26 years old, how old is DD and he is already the guy that has the most minutes played for LA and is paired against other teams top lines, after all that he is still a + player, which JJ is not EVER.

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    2. Dumbest thing I have ever read. Drew Doughty is still 22 years old, and by far, more creative offensively than Jacky J, not to mention a better defenseman. Jack is expendable, because of guys like Martinez & Voynov coming up and playing well. Not saying he's a bad player, because he is fantastic, but if it means getting Rick Nash, by all means move him.

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    3. Next time you watch a game, take notice as to who is on the ice when the Kings get scored on. JJ always seems to be out there and making a defensive mistake. There are countless examples but the most recent one I can think of is Dallas' first goal last week. JJ leaves his guy unmarked on the back door while trying to play the puck and it leads to an easy tap in. Also take a look at his +/-, worst on the team at -10. JJ is not as good as everyone makes him out to be.

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    4. I am the first poster. Say what you like. We all have opinions. My opinion is that DD will NOT be an elite d-man and will never be worth the contract he signed. We need to trade him when we have a chance.

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    5. I think our memories are short. DD was a phenom two years ago. Unlike forwards whose lmitations may be revealed after one good year because of favoring certain shots, going wide or inside too regularly etc. I don't think D-men suddenly lose the ability to turn, communicate with the goalie, make the outlet pass or skate with the moves of DD. JJ has regularly had the worst. +/- on team. Don't let DD's big contract and holdout color your views of his great talents

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  2. How about Bernier, Voynov, Loktionov, 1st pick 2013 and maybe some more prospect, Hickey? Why would CBJ want NHL ready players like JJ or Brown when they are starting a rebuild?

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    1. because nash is their franchise player. and with the all star game in cbj, they need star players

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    2. If we get Nash I could see Bernier, JJ and a 1st rounder going the other way, and maybe a forward prospect like Vey or Weal, also I could see Sanford coming back the other way with Nash.

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  3. What's going to be available during the summer? Parise is going to sign an extension before the season ends

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    1. Ummm actually no he is not, he has already come out and said he will not sign an extension this year as he wants to focus on making the playoffs. I can guarantee you that Parise is going to test free agency, also not sure Jersey can even afford him and I don't think he wants to be there past this year anyways.

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  4. I would trade DD for the right forward. Trade him now while he is still over rated.

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  5. Thank god your not the Kings GM then.

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  6. Is Anonymous the only name allowed? Or is this all just comments from 1 guy, talking to himself? lol

    Good stuff Mayor. I try almost daily to point out all these issues on other sites with Kingsfans, but for some reason, many just refuse to acknowlege them (or just don't care).

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  7. DD my Lord he is hella better than JJ. Can Johnson weave between 3-4 players clogging the middle and carry it into the zone himself? Highly Doubtful.

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  8. absolutely trade JJ and bernier for a nash. without question. JJ is a minus player who makes too many mistakes, takes too long to shoot and always coughs up the puck. bernier is great in the ahl but still needs to prove himself as an NHL goalie.

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  9. Since the Kings may (probably) lose Quick in 18 mos, trade him straight up for Nash. Trade JJ, Stoll, minor leaguer and a pick for Parise.

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  10. All the whining about how Jack is poison for the team makes no sense when you consider that he's the Kings' most improved player overall this year who, with 8 goals - exactly half of those being game winners - is not only on his way to statistically his best season yet, but blowing beloved Doughty's 5 and 2 (respectively) out of the water as he does it. The team needs offense while needing to maintain the one thing they do have - defense. Whether or not anyone decides to see this, the fact remains that this guy can do both, each better as time goes on. Doughty tries to play the star, the hero, more times than not. I've wondered many times if he knows how to pass the freakin' puck. Jack has his devil-may-care attitude in that area occasionally too, but one would be hard-pressed to say he does it for himself. That man is pure "team" mentality. Everything he does on the ice, he does for the team, which is something I've never personally gotten from DD (and no, I'm not talking about Mr. Wonderful's contract debacle). Besides that, Jack is a main contributor to the defensive tandem as a whole; why in the world would you shake up the one thing that's consistently solid?! And what's more, if he's such a rotten defenseman, why would any other team aspire to take him? Especially in a deal for any elite, fowarding, winging, hockey god? Gee, someone out there must see something good in him.

    Look, they got Richards over the summer. He was supposed to be some kind of savior, yes? They have Kopitar. Williams. The rookies who play like their lives depend on it. Come on, people! There is no reason why this team should be the least offensive in the entire league! Bringing in "sure things" to make the Kings' an offensive powerhouse and pursue that apparent we-have-a-lesser-defense-core-but-hey-we're-scoring-more-than-a-goal-a-game-at-least-for-a-little-while dream is flat-out delusion. Nash is not the Second Coming, at least not for L.A. What L.A. needs is something from the inside. They have the physical skill they need already. Something needs to change from the inside out. What that is, I don't know, but I do know that if they act out of pure desperation right now, it's going to blow up badly in the long run.

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    1. Thank you. That is one of the most well thought out posts I have read in a long time. I had to stop reading Hammonds blogs because the idiots who respond to it started to making my eyes bleed! The team has skill, it has plenty of 20+ goal scorers and needs that something I know not what to make the pucks go in, but trading away guys that will come back to haunt us is not it!

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    2. Well said. I say we trade Sutter... :)

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